Just 12 backs fit the criteria outlined above from 2015 through the 2022 season, with three coming from last year. To qualify as a bust, players must have ended the season at least 10 spots below their positional average draft position ( ADP) and/or posted at least 100 points below their projected output. In order to get candidates with true fantasy failures, all players must have been on the field for at least 10 games that season, eliminating players with significant injuries.
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For this article, only WRs and RBs were used, as their sample size is much larger in these rounds, plus elite QBs and TEs very rarely bust unless they’re off the shelf due to injury. When examining the characteristics of an early-round bust, I decided to look at players who were selected in Rounds 1 and 2 from 2015–2022, in an attempt to find any correlations in their seasons. If we could somehow predict which players forecasted among the first two rounds would falter, or produce much less than their expectations, we could get an edge on the competition and save ourselves some heartache along the way. But what about the guys who are drafted within the first few rounds who just don’t pan out as expected? That significant drop in points can easily be a difference-maker throughout the season, considering those players' projections were among the top in the league. Sadly, those premature injuries are an inevitable part of the game, something fantasy owners really can’t do anything about. Of course, it wouldn’t be fantasy football without an early-round player getting injured during the preseason or the first couple of weeks of the regular season, sending them to the sidelines for a significant amount of games, or even ending their entire season before it even began. Their contribution should be impactful, one that can be counted on every time they take the football field. BetMGM + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Betting Subscription)Īs drafters, we expect our first couple picks to be automatic, players who will sit atop any roster at the end of the season.No House Advantage + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Subscription).
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